【鸡蛋周报】强预期与弱现实的劈叉

Core Viewpoint - The recent market conditions show a significant bullish sentiment in the forward contracts for eggs, with the basis for the 2608 contract reaching a historical high of 1500 points above spot prices, indicating optimistic pricing based on expected capacity reduction [3][37][38]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The market is currently experiencing a contradiction where bullish expectations are difficult to disprove, while high premiums may slow down capacity reduction, intensifying the speculative nature of the current market [4][33]. - The spot market is under pressure, with prices showing narrow fluctuations, and the overall price center for forward contracts has been elevated due to expectations of improved supply-demand dynamics [3][37]. Group 2: Price Observations - As of December 26, 2025, the average price of eggs in major production areas was 2.91 yuan per jin, with a weekly decrease of 0.16 yuan per jin, while the average price in major sales areas was 3.08 yuan per jin, down 0.14 yuan per jin week-on-week [10][42]. - The price trends indicate a slight upward movement in the spot market, but the overall price remains under seasonal pressure, leading to a narrow range of price fluctuations [40][42]. Group 3: Inventory and Production - The inventory of laying hens as of November 2025 was 1.352 billion birds, showing a month-on-month decrease of 0.5% but a year-on-year increase of 5.3%, indicating a gradual easing of supply pressure [16][46]. - The number of hens being culled has decreased, with 20.82 million birds culled in the latest week, reflecting a slight rebound in culling prices to 3.80 yuan per jin, suggesting reduced willingness among farmers to cull [50][53]. Group 4: Future Expectations - The market is advised to be cautious of potential risks if spot prices recover, which could lead to increased retention of hens and a quicker return to stocking, potentially slowing the expected capacity reduction [4][33]. - The strategy for forward contracts suggests a preference for low-price positioning, as chasing high prices carries significant uncertainty [34][38].