时报观察 汇率没有单边走势 双向波动是常态

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the RMB against the USD has sparked market interest, but there are differing opinions on whether this trend will continue, with expectations of two-way fluctuations in the exchange rate being the norm [1][2] Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Trends - Since mid-October, the RMB has appreciated by nearly 1.7% against the USD, influenced by factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and seasonal demand for currency settlement [1] - The exchange rate is currently at a critical point around 7.0, which is seen as a battleground for bullish and bearish sentiments [1] - Despite the typical year-end surge in currency settlement, recent data shows that the foreign exchange market remains balanced, with stable bank settlement and sales [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The RMB's appreciation is not solely driven by domestic supply and demand but is also affected by the trends in the USD index [2] - The CFETS RMB index has remained relatively stable, indicating that while the RMB has strengthened, it is still at a reasonable equilibrium level [2] - The central bank is likely to intervene if the RMB appreciates too quickly to prevent one-sided market expectations and self-reinforcing "herd effects" [2] Group 3: Risk Management for Market Participants - Market participants, including enterprises and financial institutions, should be cautious about blindly following exchange rate trends and should adopt a risk-neutral approach [2] - Utilizing foreign exchange derivatives such as options and futures is recommended for effective currency risk management [2]