十大券商一周策略:A股跨年行情启动,人民币汇率与春季躁动行情有望共振,新主线浮出水面
Jin Rong Jie·2025-12-28 23:58

Group 1 - The market is expected to maintain structural opportunities driven by liquidity easing, policy expectations, and a strengthening yuan, with consensus on sectors like technology manufacturing, resource products, and beneficiaries of yuan appreciation [1][4][5] - A total of 39 out of 360 industry/theme ETFs reached new highs in December, with established sectors like telecommunications and non-ferrous metals leading, alongside emerging sectors like commercial aerospace [2][3] - The focus remains on sectors with low heat and high long-term ROE potential, such as chemicals, engineering machinery, and new industries like commercial aerospace, while also tracking the trend of yuan appreciation [3][4] Group 2 - The spring market conditions remain favorable, supported by liquidity and investor expectations, with a potential for volatility in early 2026 due to upcoming events like the Spring Festival and the Two Sessions [4][10] - The yuan's appreciation is expected to enhance domestic purchasing power and attract foreign capital back to Chinese assets, creating significant potential for asset revaluation [5][6] - Key sectors to watch include AI investments, global manufacturing recovery, and consumer sectors benefiting from increased domestic demand, such as aviation, hotels, and food and beverage [9][11][12] Group 3 - The current market is characterized by a lack of clear bull market signals, but the foundation remains solid with improving fundamentals and capital inflows [7][12] - The market is likely to experience a structural and rapid rotation of sectors, with a focus on technology themes and non-bank financial sectors [16][15] - The upcoming spring market is anticipated to show upward momentum, with opportunities for low-positioning strategies and sector switching rather than aggressive trend-following [16][14]