中金：如何看待2026年红利行情？

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC indicates that the performance of dividend style in 2025 is expected to be relatively flat, characterized by phase-specific and structural opportunities. The Chinese stock market has performed well since the beginning of the year, while the dividend style has shown a lackluster performance. The report suggests that the dividend style will have relative performance during periods of increased external uncertainty and corrections in growth styles [1]. Group 1: Market Conditions and Trends - The current low long-term interest rates in China have entered a volatile phase, with market risk appetite significantly improving, which supports the dividend style. The report notes that the factors supporting the dividend style have been largely reflected, while the stability of the underlying companies will be a key focus for future stock selection [1][5]. - The report anticipates that the A-share market style may become more balanced in 2026, with a higher certainty for dividend style, but still leaning towards structural and phase-specific opportunities. The demand for fund allocation will support the performance of the dividend sector [2]. Group 2: Long-term Capital and Investment Trends - The policy environment encourages long-term capital, such as insurance and pension funds, to enter the market, enhancing the stability of the capital market. As of Q3, the scale of stocks and securities held by insurance companies has increased to 5.6 trillion yuan, marking a new high since 2013, with a rising position of 1.9 percentage points to 14.9% [3][14]. - The current macro liquidity is relatively loose, with government bond yields at historical lows, leading to a decline in traditional savings advantages. This environment is expected to make dividend styles, which offer stable cash flows and valuation advantages, an attractive investment direction [3]. Group 3: Dividend Policy and Corporate Performance - The capital market emphasizes a balance between investment and financing, with ongoing encouragement for dividend policies. The willingness and ability of listed companies to distribute dividends have been on the rise, with the overall dividend payout ratio in A-shares expected to reach 45% by 2024, and the proportion of dividend-paying companies at 69.2% [4][17]. - The report highlights that since the second half of 2018, the dividend yield of the CSI Dividend Index has consistently exceeded the yield of ten-year government bonds, with the gap peaking at 490 basis points. However, recent market increases have led to a narrowing of this gap, with the dividend yield falling to around 320 basis points [4][19]. Group 4: Stock Selection Criteria for Dividend Style - The report outlines specific stock selection criteria for the dividend style, including market capitalization over 20 billion yuan, a price-to-earnings ratio below 25, and a dividend yield requirement based on industry volatility. For financial stocks, a dividend yield greater than 4.5% is required, while for cyclical industries, yields must exceed 4% or 3% depending on the stability of the sector [5]. - Additional criteria include a dividend payout ratio above 45% for non-financial companies, a free cash flow to equity ratio greater than 8%, and a three-year average return on equity (ROE) of over 6% for non-financial firms [5].