诺德基金王宪彪 | 2026年债券市场展望：震荡中的机遇与布局

Group 1 - The domestic capital market in 2025 shows a significant "strong stock and weak bond" pattern, with the bond market experiencing a downward trend while the A-share market performs strongly due to technology themes and economic recovery expectations [1] - The bond market's performance diverges from fundamental data, particularly in long-term bonds of 10 years and above, which reflects a weakening trend [1][3] - The credit bond market shows a narrowing of credit spreads in the first half of the year, despite some defaults in non-standard financing [5] Group 2 - For 2026, the domestic capital market is expected to exhibit a synchronized upward trend in both stocks and bonds, supported by a dovish monetary policy and fiscal stimulus [7][10] - The monetary policy remains "moderately loose," with a focus on maintaining stable financing conditions, although the frequency and magnitude of rate cuts may be limited [10][11] - The macroeconomic environment in 2025 demonstrates resilience despite pressures from geopolitical conflicts and trade tensions, with GDP growth expected to meet the target of around 5% [14] Group 3 - The investment strategy suggests that opportunities in the market are more abundant compared to early 2025, with long-term bonds and local government bonds showing potential for stable returns [18] - The recommendation includes cautious allocation to short-term bonds issued by weaker regional platforms while managing credit risk [18] - The strategy also considers trading in certain long-duration government bonds to capitalize on favorable market conditions [18]