针尖对麦芒：美联储2025年内部分裂实录，2026年可能更精彩

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is facing significant internal divisions regarding interest rate policies, a situation not seen since the 1970s, and this discord is expected to persist until 2026 [1][2][8]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Policy Challenges - The Federal Reserve has struggled to balance its dual mandate of maximizing employment and price stability, leading to conflicting opinions among committee members on interest rate policies [1][2]. - Despite three successful interest rate cuts in 2025, the next chair may find it challenging to unify the committee if inflation remains high and the job market weak [1][7]. - The internal divisions were highlighted during the summer of 2025 when some members advocated for rate cuts to address a weakening job market, while others expressed concerns about persistent inflation [4][5]. Group 2: Impact of Trump's Policies - The Trump administration's economic policies, including fluctuating tariffs and immigration controls, have caused the Federal Reserve to adopt a wait-and-see approach, complicating their policy decisions [2][3]. - Trump's dissatisfaction with the Fed's inaction led to attempts to pressure the Fed for rate cuts and even threats to dismiss Chairman Powell, raising concerns about the central bank's independence [2][8]. - The introduction of significant tariffs in 2025 prompted fears among Fed officials that these could lead to sustained inflation, contrary to initial beliefs that the impact would be temporary [3][5]. Group 3: Economic Outlook for 2026 - The Federal Reserve is expected to proceed cautiously in 2026, with only one additional rate cut anticipated, as officials believe the current job market weakness does not warrant urgent action [7][9]. - Economic growth is projected to rebound in 2026 due to fiscal stimulus from tax legislation and the end of the government shutdown, although inflation is expected to remain above the 2% target [7][9]. - The upcoming change in leadership at the Federal Reserve is likely to influence future policy directions, with expectations that the new chair may favor lower interest rates, but challenges remain if inflation persists [7][9].