机构：锂电供给确立穿越过剩周期 2026年有望复苏

Group 1 - The Ningde City lithium battery new energy industry promotion conference was held on December 28, 2025, aiming to enhance the competitiveness and supply chain resilience of the lithium battery industry [1] - During the signing ceremony, 10 projects were signed with a total investment of 7.47 billion and an expected annual output value of 12.14 billion [1] - Four key focus areas for the lithium battery sector in 2026 include: 1) Demand outlook driven by the growth of new energy vehicles and increased battery capacity, particularly in commercial vehicles [1] 2) Potential intensification of supply-demand balance due to seasonal peaks [1] 3) Limited expansion plans from companies due to general profitability and cash flow issues [1] 4) Price increase potential in 2026, considering current pricing and profitability [1] Group 2 - Guojin Securities believes that the lithium supply will establish a recovery through the excess cycle, with a significant rebound expected in 2026 [2] - The inventory cycle has transitioned from two years of destocking to an active restocking phase, with fundamentals indicating a bottoming out in 2024 and a notable recovery in 2026 [2] - The core logic is driven by terminal demand growth from AI and energy storage, while supply expansion slows due to reduced capital expenditures, leading to a supply-demand mismatch [2]