警惕汇率超调！离岸人民币“破7”后，2026年这些变量仍要关注

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar has sparked discussions about a potential new cycle of RMB appreciation, but significant uncertainties remain regarding future exchange rate movements [1][2]. Group 1: Current RMB Exchange Rate Trends - The offshore RMB reached a critical level of approximately 6.99 against the US dollar on December 25, marking a significant milestone as it broke the 7 mark [1]. - The recent appreciation of the RMB is attributed to multiple factors, including adjustments in Federal Reserve policies, fluctuations in the US dollar index, and improvements in domestic policy expectations [1][2]. - Market experts emphasize the need for companies and financial institutions to manage exchange rate risks carefully and avoid speculative behaviors [1]. Group 2: Future Outlook for RMB Exchange Rate - The outlook for the RMB exchange rate in 2026 remains uncertain, influenced by various internal and external factors [2]. - Short-term factors driving the recent RMB appreciation include a weakening US dollar and robust performance of the Chinese economy, with a projected growth rate of around 5% for the year [2]. - Experts suggest that while the US dollar may not weaken as much as anticipated, the RMB's future movements will still be affected by a combination of domestic and international influences [2][3]. Group 3: Policy Considerations - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) aims to maintain the RMB exchange rate's stability at a reasonable and balanced level, focusing on preventing excessive fluctuations in either direction [4][5]. - The central bank's policy direction emphasizes the need to manage both appreciation and depreciation risks, indicating a preference for a dual-directional fluctuation within a defined range for the RMB [4][5]. - Analysts believe that the PBOC will likely maintain a stable RMB exchange rate policy, particularly in the face of significant depreciation pressures [5].