Jin Rong Jie·2025-12-29 01:03Group 1 - Lithium prices continue to rise, with carbonate lithium futures reaching 130,800 CNY/ton, marking a new high since November 2023, and a year-to-date increase of 68.72% [1] - Morgan Stanley has raised the target price for carbonate lithium to $18,000/ton for Q4 2026, significantly above the current spot price of approximately $13,500/ton, and has also increased the target price for spodumene to $2,000/ton, nearly doubling from the current spot price of about $1,100/ton [1] - The surge in lithium prices is expected to positively impact the profitability of carbonate lithium producers, driven by the ongoing growth in global electric vehicle and energy storage markets [1] Group 2 - Sodium-ion battery costs have rapidly decreased, and energy density has significantly improved, leading to expanded application scenarios, including use in A0/A00 vehicles and hybrid models [2] - In the two-wheeler market, sodium-ion batteries are expected to gradually replace some lead-acid batteries due to safety and cost advantages, with multiple companies set to launch sodium-powered two-wheelers in 2024 [2] - CATL plans to significantly scale up sodium battery applications across various sectors, including battery swapping, passenger vehicles, commercial vehicles, and energy storage by 2026, indicating a trend of "sodium-lithium dual stars shining" [2] Group 3 - CATL is projected to ship 2 GWh of sodium batteries in 2025, with expectations to increase shipments by at least five times in 2026 [3] - The cost of sodium batteries is now very close to that of lithium batteries, while the cycle life of sodium-ion batteries is 1.5 times longer than that of lithium-ion batteries, potentially leading to lower storage costs per cycle [3] Group 4 - Related Hong Kong stocks in the sodium-ion battery supply chain include CATL (03750), Zhongwei New Materials (02579), and BYD Company (01211) [4]