金价频频刷新纪录，明年或迈向5000美元

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights that geopolitical tensions, the U.S. entering a rate-cutting cycle, and central banks increasing gold holdings have driven international gold prices to record highs in 2025, with an annual increase of approximately 70%, marking the strongest performance since 1979 [1] - State Street Investment Management, a major asset management firm, predicts that strategic capital reallocation and geopolitical factors could push gold prices to $5,000 [1] - OCBC's foreign exchange strategist notes that the rise in gold prices reflects a combination of structural, fundamental, seasonal, and emotional demand factors, and historically, gold performs better than other assets during monetary policy easing cycles [4] Group 2 - OANDA's senior market analyst states that momentum-driven and speculative funds have been the main forces behind the rise in gold and silver prices since early December, influenced by low market liquidity, expectations of prolonged U.S. rate cuts, a weaker dollar, and renewed geopolitical risks [4] - ING's commodity strategist points out that the growth of gold mining supply is typically slow and relatively inelastic, with global gold production remaining stable since 2019, indicating that even if supply increases, it may have limited impact on prices [4] - The demand for gold is primarily driven by macroeconomic factors such as real yields, dollar trends, central bank purchases, and investment fund flows, with changes in mining supply rarely exerting significant downward pressure on prices [4]