白银价格又双叒叕创新高，马斯克疾呼：这可不是什么好事

Core Viewpoint - Silver prices have reached historic highs, with significant implications for downstream manufacturers due to supply shortages and rising demand for industrial applications [1][4]. Price Movement - In December, silver prices surged, exceeding $83 per ounce, marking a continuous increase for six consecutive trading days, with a current price of $81 per ounce [1]. - The price of silver was only $56 per ounce at the beginning of December and $29 per ounce at the start of 2025, indicating a year-to-date increase of approximately 180% [3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The global silver market has been in a structural deficit for five consecutive years, with physical inventories rapidly depleting and major exchange stock levels significantly declining [3]. - In 2025, global silver demand is projected to reach 1.24 billion ounces, while supply is expected to be only 1.01 billion ounces, resulting in a supply gap of 100 to 250 million ounces [3]. Industrial Applications - Silver is essential in various industrial processes, including electrification, solar panels, electric vehicles, and data centers, all of which are experiencing growing demand [5]. Market Sentiment - Analysts are divided on the future of silver prices, with some optimistic about prices potentially exceeding $100 per ounce next year, while others warn of a potential correction due to overvaluation [8]. - Concerns have been raised about the rapid increase in precious metal prices being driven by insufficient market liquidity, which could lead to a swift decline [8]. Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical risks and expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026 have bolstered demand for safe-haven assets like silver [3][7]. - The availability of silver is also influenced by ongoing investigations into the national security risks of key mineral imports, which may lead to tariffs or trade restrictions [7].