光大期货：12月29日能源化工日报

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices are experiencing fluctuations due to concerns over oversupply, with WTI and Brent crude oil prices declining by 2.76% and 2.57% respectively, as geopolitical tensions continue to impact the market [2][29]. Oil Supply and Demand - China's offshore oil production is projected to reach approximately 68 million tons by 2025, accounting for about 80% of the country's total oil production increase [3][30]. - Global liquid fuel consumption is expected to average 104 million barrels per day, an increase of approximately 1.1 million barrels per day year-on-year, while global oil supply is projected to reach 105 million barrels per day, growing at a rate of 2.6% [3][30]. - Venezuela's oil exports are critical to its economy, with the country condemning U.S. actions against its oil tankers as piracy [3][30]. Regional Market Dynamics - West African crude oil sellers are struggling to find buyers due to intense competition from cheaper alternatives, with over 20 million barrels of Nigerian oil remaining unsold as of December 18 [4][31]. - The overall commodity market is showing significant divergence, with traditional energy prices continuing to decline amid a loose supply-demand balance [4][31]. Fuel Oil Market - High and low sulfur fuel oil supplies remain ample, with Kuwait's Al-Zour refinery expected to contribute to increased low sulfur fuel oil shipments [5][32]. - China's high sulfur fuel oil imports were approximately 1.1 million tons in November, reflecting a month-on-month increase [5][32]. Asphalt Production - China's asphalt production for January 2026 is estimated at around 2.1 million tons, a decrease of 6% from December's production plan [8][35]. - The demand for asphalt is expected to be hindered by adverse weather conditions, impacting both northern and southern markets [8][35]. Rubber Market - Global natural rubber production is expected to decline by 2.6% in November, while consumption is projected to decrease by 1.4% [10][37]. - China's tire manufacturers are experiencing varying operational rates, with half-steel tire production at 72.05% and full-steel tire production at 61.95% [10][37].