光大期货：12月29日软商品日报

Sugar Market Summary - Raw sugar prices experienced a slight rebound this week, with Thailand's cumulative sugarcane crushing volume for the 2025/26 season reaching 11.53 million tons, a decrease of 1.96 million tons or 14.54% compared to the same period last year [1] - The sugar content in sugarcane was 11.40%, down 0.08% from last year, while the sugar production rate increased by 0.027% to 8.676% [1] - Domestic sugar prices have shown recovery, with Guangxi's new sugar quoted at 5,320 to 5,410 yuan per ton and Yunnan's at 5,140 to 5,260 yuan per ton [1] Domestic Market Insights - The domestic spot market has finally seen a rebound, with Guangxi prices returning above 5,300 yuan per ton, indicating a recovery in downstream purchasing [2] - The current adjustment phase has tested the bottom, and short-term expectations suggest continued fluctuations, although upward price movement may face challenges due to the increase in production [2] Cotton Market Overview - The expected reduction in cotton planting area for the new year is strong, with the Xinjiang Cotton Association indicating a structural compression in cotton planting area for 2026 [3] - The demand for cotton remains resilient, with November retail sales of clothing and textiles increasing by 3.5% year-on-year, and textile enterprises showing slight decreases in operating rates [4][5] - Cotton commercial inventory as of mid-December was 5.35 million tons, reflecting a month-on-month increase, while industrial inventory also saw a rise [6][7] International Market Dynamics - The overall driving force in the international market is limited, with the U.S. cotton export contract volume showing a decrease of 24.3% year-on-year [6] - The global cotton production for the 2025/26 season is expected to increase, but supply will only exceed demand by a small margin, indicating a balanced market [8] Price Expectations - The cotton price is expected to maintain an upward trend due to strong market sentiment and anticipated policy adjustments regarding cotton subsidies [8] - Short-term optimism is likely to continue, with key factors to watch including consumer performance and potential new inventory demands from textile enterprises before the Spring Festival [8]