张瑜：美联储降息≠人民币升值≠出口承压

Group 1 - The core narrative is that the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts lead to a weaker dollar, which in turn causes the renminbi to appreciate, potentially harming export competitiveness [1][3][69] - The logic of this narrative is questioned, as a Fed rate cut does not necessarily equate to a weaker dollar, and an appreciation of the renminbi does not automatically imply a loss of export competitiveness [1][3][69] - The outlook for the renminbi exchange rate suggests that it is currently fairly valued, with no significant overvaluation or undervaluation issues. The internal stability of the renminbi is supported by export resilience and policy support, but substantial upward momentum may require further accumulation [1][3][64] Group 2 - The relationship between the Fed's rate cuts and the dollar's trend is unstable, with a historical correlation coefficient of only 0.04 between Fed rate adjustments and dollar index movements since October 1982 [4][15][70] - The convergence of interest rate differentials between China and the U.S. has shown a strong correlation with the renminbi's appreciation, with a correlation coefficient of 0.88 since January 2022 [5][18][71] - The assertion that renminbi appreciation harms export competitiveness is not strongly supported, as only the real exchange rate shows a potential impact on exports, while nominal rates do not correlate with export performance [6][21][72] Group 3 - The renminbi's appreciation this year can be divided into two phases: the first phase from mid-April to November, driven primarily by policy support, and the second phase from late November to the present, driven by market supply and demand [7][25][73] - In the first phase, the renminbi's central parity appreciated from approximately 7.21 to around 7.08, with a monthly average appreciation of about 186 basis points [29][31] - In the second phase, the renminbi's central parity further appreciated to just above 7.04, with a significant increase in market-driven factors influencing this change [31][32] Group 4 - Future exchange rate trends will be influenced by four key factors: valuation factors, policy orientation, internal supply and demand, and external responses [39][74] - The valuation of the renminbi is currently within a reasonable range, with deviations from the "value center" being only 0% to 2% [39][74] - The policy orientation has shifted from supporting a stable appreciation of the renminbi to preventing excessive appreciation volatility, indicating a focus on maintaining stability rather than encouraging a one-sided market trend [42][75]