Market Overview - The average price of SMM1 electrolytic copper for the week ending December 27, 2025, ranged from 93,470 to 97,740 yuan/ton, showing an upward trend during the week [2][10] - SMM's premium/discount quotes ranged from -340 to -195 yuan/ton, maintaining a discount throughout the week [2][10] - LME inventory decreased by 0.07 million tons to 157,000 tons, while the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory increased by 1.59 million tons to 111,700 tons [2][10] - Domestic social inventory (excluding bonded zones) rose by 2.52 million tons to 193,600 tons, and bonded zone inventory decreased by 0.12 million tons to 75,400 tons [2][10] - Comex inventory increased by 2.07 million tons to 482,900 tons [2][10] Macroeconomic Insights - In the week ending December 27, 2025, U.S. core capital goods orders and shipments rebounded [3][11] - The offshore RMB broke the "7" mark against the USD for the first time in 15 months [3][11] - The risk of military conflict between Israel and Iran has escalated due to missile issues [3][11] - The Bank of Japan's governor indicated that they are nearing their inflation target and may continue to raise interest rates [3][11] Mining Sector - The SMM imported copper concentrate index reported -44.9 USD/dry ton, down by 1.25 USD from the previous period [3][12] - Market trading was quiet due to the Christmas holiday, with foreign suppliers on break [3][12] - Kaz Minerals has reduced direct supply of copper concentrate to China, with remaining supplies to be circulated through traders [3][12] - Capstone Copper's Mantoverde mine union plans to strike on December 29 if labor negotiations fail, with a projected copper output of 22,000 tons in 2024 [3][12] Smelting and Import Dynamics - The average transaction price for Yangshan copper premium was 53.4 USD/ton, up 4.4 USD week-on-week [4][13] - The average price for warehouse receipts was 53.6 USD/ton, up 10.6 USD week-on-week [4][13] - The import loss was approximately 1,400 yuan/ton as of December 24, with mainstream warehouse and bill prices ranging from 40 to 50 USD/ton [4][13] Scrap Copper Market - Copper prices surged, with Shanghai copper reaching a peak of 99,730 yuan/ton, an increase of nearly 6,000 yuan [5][14] - The price difference between refined and scrap copper narrowed before rebounding to 3,944 yuan/ton, showing weak follow-through in scrap copper prices [5][14] - Market liquidity is tight due to sellers holding back, and downstream purchasing remains cautious [5][14] Consumption Trends - The operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises was 60.73%, down 2.34 percentage points [6][15] - High copper prices have suppressed downstream purchasing, leading to fewer new orders and a continued weak market [6][15] - The operating rate for copper cable enterprises was 60.75%, down 5.96 percentage points [6][15] Strategic Outlook - The strategy for copper is cautiously bullish, with recommendations for downstream enterprises to focus on demand-based hedging [7][16] - If prices fall between 94,000 and 95,000 yuan/ton, it is suggested to increase buying hedging [7][16]
华泰期货：基本面变化有限 但资金力量使得铜价持续走高
Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-12-29 02:09