华泰期货：印尼政策引爆市场，镍不锈钢价格底部反弹

Core Viewpoints - Nickel prices are experiencing a rebound influenced by Indonesian policies and a collective rise in non-ferrous and precious metals, with the Shanghai nickel contract showing a V-shaped reversal and high volatility [2][11] - The market is currently in a phase of supply-demand dynamics, with a cautious sentiment prevailing among traders [2][11] Market Analysis - Price Movement: The Shanghai nickel contract rose from 121,700 CNY/ton to a peak of 130,900 CNY/ton, followed by a pullback to 126,800 CNY/ton, resulting in an approximate weekly increase of 8.2%, marking an 8-month high [2][11] - Spot Market: The average price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 126,870 CNY/ton, up 9,600 CNY/ton from the previous week, while the average premium for Jinchuan nickel increased by 500 CNY/ton to 7,000 CNY/ton [2][11] - Macro Environment: The People's Bank of China conducted a 400 billion CNY MLF operation, enhancing liquidity expectations, while the offshore RMB strengthened against the USD, providing support for the domestic commodity market [2][11] Supply and Demand - Supply: Indonesia's APNI announced a significant reduction in nickel ore production targets for 2026 from 379 million tons to 250 million tons, a decrease of 34%, leading to an expected supply gap of 30-40 million tons [3][12] - Demand: Stainless steel production remains high in December, and the recovery in new energy vehicle production contributes to stable demand for ternary batteries [3][12] Cost and Profit - Production Costs: Integrated MHP production of electrolytic nickel has a cost of 111,026 CNY/ton with a profit margin of 9.00%, while other production methods show negative profit margins [4][12] - Inventory Levels: Shanghai nickel inventory decreased from 45,280 tons to 44,454 tons, while LME nickel inventory increased slightly from 253,998 tons to 255,696 tons [4][12] Strategy - The rebound in nickel prices is driven by Indonesian policy changes and the rise in non-ferrous metals, but high inventory levels and a weak end-user demand suggest limited upward momentum [5][13] - Short-term trading strategies are recommended within the 123,000-130,000 CNY range for high sell-low buy opportunities [5][13] Stainless Steel Market - Price Movement: The main stainless steel contract showed a passive rise, reaching a peak of 13,105 CNY/ton before closing at 12,955 CNY/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.85% [6][14] - Supply and Demand: December's stainless steel crude steel production is expected to decline, particularly in the 200 and 400 series, while downstream demand remains weak [7][15] - Inventory: The total stainless steel inventory in major markets decreased by 3.55% week-on-week, indicating a trend of destocking [7][15]