华泰期货：资金热情爆棚，碳酸锂价格冲破两年新高

Core Viewpoint - The main contract for lithium carbonate has shown a strong upward trend, reaching a new high since November 2023, closing at 130,520 yuan/ton with a weekly increase of over 12%, although high volatility and the risk of correction have also increased [2][8] Price Analysis - The current average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate is 104,900 yuan/ton, with a basis of approximately -25,600 yuan/ton, indicating a significant futures premium [2][8] - Trading volume for the top 20 positions increased to over 900,000 lots from the 23rd to the 25th, with a reduction in positions on the 26th, showing a retreat from both long and short positions, with a larger reduction in shorts [2][8] Supply Side - Lithium salt production remains stable, with a projected month-on-month increase of about 3% in December, totaling 22,161 tons, compared to 22,045 tons the previous week [3][9] - Breakdown of production includes spodumene at 13,864 tons, mica at 2,866 tons, salt lake at 3,075 tons, and recycled lithium at 3,075 tons [3][9] Demand Side - Overall demand remains resilient, with December's new energy vehicle sales expected to perform well, and the energy storage market continuing to show strong supply and demand dynamics [3][9] - However, attention is needed on potential disruptions in short-term demand due to maintenance shutdowns at leading processing companies in January [3][9] Inventory Analysis - Current spot inventory stands at 109,773 tons, down by 652 tons, with reductions in both smelter and downstream inventories [4][10] - Smelter inventory is at 17,851 tons, down by 239 tons, while downstream inventory is at 39,892 tons, down by 1,593 tons [4][10] Profitability Insights - Lithium ore prices are following the fluctuations of lithium carbonate futures, with low spot circulation but an expected increase in overseas imports, providing support for carbonate costs [4][10] Strategy Recommendations - A strong market trend may continue in the short term, but caution is advised around the 130,000 yuan mark, with a focus on the support range of 125,000 to 128,000 yuan [5][11] - Industry clients are advised to hedge positions, while speculative funds should manage their positions and stop-loss levels [5][11]