华泰期货：现货供应下降，玻碱震荡上涨

Glass Market Analysis - The main contract for glass (2605) experienced a fluctuating increase this week, with the average price of float glass in the domestic market at 1082 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.16 yuan/ton compared to the previous week, indicating a downward shift in transaction focus [2][10] - The operating rate of float glass enterprises is at 73.65%, a decrease of 0.34% week-on-week, while the capacity utilization rate is at 77.42%, down by 0.14% [2][10] - Daily melting volume of float glass is 154,500 tons, which is a 0.39% decrease from the previous week [2][10] Demand and Inventory - Demand for float glass has improved on a week-on-week basis, with production and sales recovering, primarily driven by downstream purchasing based on demand [3][11] - Total inventory of float glass in sample enterprises across the country is 58.623 million heavy boxes, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.11% [3][12] - The supply-demand contradiction in the glass market remains significant, with insufficient production cuts compared to the declining demand, leading to persistent inventory pressure [3][12] Soda Ash Market Analysis - The main contract for soda ash (2605) also saw a fluctuating increase this week, with downstream purchasing primarily driven by demand amid a cautious market sentiment [4][13] - The capacity utilization rate for soda ash is at 81.65%, down by 1.09% week-on-week, with a production volume of 711,800 tons, a decrease of 1.33% [4][13] - Soda ash consumption has slightly declined, with daily melting of float glass decreasing and photovoltaic glass remaining stable [4][14] Inventory and Supply-Demand Dynamics - Domestic soda ash manufacturers' inventory stands at 1.4385 million tons, reflecting a significant week-on-week decrease of 4.06% [5][14] - The supply-demand contradiction for soda ash has eased, with continuous inventory reduction as enterprises lower production loads [5][14] - Future projections indicate that new projects in soda ash production may impact supply dynamics, necessitating close monitoring of float glass production line changes and new soda ash project developments [5][14]