华泰期货：政策影响减弱，多晶硅进入震荡区间

Price Analysis - The main contract for industrial silicon showed a fluctuating upward trend this week, with prices rising from 8685 CNY/ton to 8800 CNY/ton, a cumulative increase of approximately 2.19%. The highest price reached 8940 CNY/ton, while the lowest was 8555 CNY/ton, with overall volatility controlled within 4% [2][3] - The spot price for industrial silicon remained stable, with slight increases in some specifications. As of December 25, the price for SMM East China 553 silicon was between 9200-9300 CNY/ton, up 50 CNY/ton week-on-week, while 441 silicon remained stable at 9300-9500 CNY/ton [2][3] Supply Dynamics - Recent trends indicate a reduction in industrial silicon supply, with a current supply still relatively loose under a dual reduction in supply and demand. Silicon producers are facing pressure on prices due to their sales, while stable raw material prices provide cost support [3][4] - In the southwestern region, production levels have stabilized at low levels, with manufacturers holding inventory but showing weak willingness to sell due to low market prices and weak downstream purchasing capacity. In contrast, some manufacturers in the northwestern region have increased production, providing some price support [3][4] Demand Insights - According to SMM statistics, the expected domestic polysilicon production for December is 113,500 tons, a slight decrease of 0.1 tons month-on-month, indicating stability. Overall, industrial silicon demand is showing a slight decline as the year-end approaches [3][4] Inventory Levels - The total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions is reported at 555,000 tons, with a week-on-week increase of 2,000 tons [3][4] Cost and Profitability - Production costs for metallic silicon have increased slightly this week, primarily due to rising electricity prices in Sichuan. However, prices for raw materials such as petroleum coke, quartz, and electrodes remain stable. Future costs are expected to stabilize [4][5] - The overall production cost of industrial silicon remains stable, with raw material prices holding steady. The increase in prices has led to a rise in industrial silicon profits [4][5] Market Strategy - Industrial silicon prices are expected to maintain a range-bound fluctuation, with upward potential dependent on the recovery of downstream demand and inventory reduction progress. Downward pressure is limited by cost support and expectations of production cuts [5][6] Polysilicon Market Overview - The main contract for polysilicon exhibited a wide range of fluctuations this week, with prices peaking at 61,150 CNY/ton and dropping to 57,025 CNY/ton, resulting in a weekly decline of 2.14% [7][8] - The latest weekly polysilicon production is reported at 25,300 tons, with a month-on-month increase of 1.20%. The overall supply for December continues to show a contraction trend, although the decrease is not significant [8][9] Demand and Inventory in Polysilicon - The overall demand for polysilicon is contracting due to a seasonal slowdown, with downstream production cuts leading to weak purchasing activity. High inventory levels are causing downstream companies to lack motivation for replenishment [8][9] - The latest polysilicon inventory is reported at 303,000 tons, with a week-on-week increase of 3.41% [8][9] Cost Structure in Polysilicon - Current cost changes in the polysilicon industry are minimal, with most companies reporting a total cost of around 45,000 CNY/ton, except for a few with lower electricity prices [8][9] Future Price Expectations - Polysilicon prices are expected to remain in the range of 57,000 to 61,000 CNY/ton, awaiting further clarity on the fundamentals. Short-term focus will be on new silicon wafer prices and January production plans, while long-term attention will be on the implementation of storage policies and inventory reduction progress [10][18]