“蛋”说无妨：供应压力未消、需求低于预期，四季度价格触底震荡

Core Viewpoint - The egg market is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance in Q4, leading to a decline in prices for both eggs and hens, pushing the industry into a loss-making phase. Expectations for Q1 2026 suggest a potential rebalancing of supply and demand, with prices likely to rise initially before falling again [2][18]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - In Q4, the average price of eggs was 2.96 yuan per jin, down 5.73% from Q3, while the average price of hens fell to 4.03 yuan per jin, a decrease of 18.75% [3][19]. - The average cost of producing one jin of eggs decreased to 2.95 yuan, a reduction of 2.64%, but the drop in egg prices was more significant, leading to an average gross profit loss of 0.19 yuan per jin, worsening by 0.10 yuan compared to Q3 [19][25]. - The inventory of laying hens was approximately 1.356 billion, a slight decrease of 0.51% from the previous quarter, indicating a high historical level despite the downward trend [4][28]. Price Trends - Egg prices showed a "high-level retreat and bottom oscillation" pattern in Q4, peaking at 3.39 yuan per jin on October 1, then dropping to a low of 2.76 yuan per jin by October 13, marking a maximum decline of 18.58% [5][21]. - The average price of hens also followed a similar trend, with a quarterly average of 4.03 yuan per jin, down 18.75%, reflecting a significant drop from earlier in the quarter [7][24]. Profitability and Cost Structure - Despite a decrease in production costs, the decline in egg prices has led to an expanded loss in gross profit margins, with the average gross profit for eggs falling to -0.19 yuan per jin [8][25]. - The ongoing losses have resulted in a cautious approach to restocking among producers, with an increased willingness to sell off existing stock, indicating a shift towards reducing production capacity [10][27]. Market Demand and Sales - Sales in key markets decreased by 10.56% in Q4, attributed to the end of holiday demand and adverse weather conditions affecting storage [30]. - The overall demand for eggs has shown a structural change, with large-scale enterprises balancing their operations across regions, reducing inter-regional transport needs and impacting traditional sales channels [30]. Future Outlook - The egg production cycle suggests a continued decrease in inventory levels over the next three months, with expected reductions of 0.50% to 0.80% [31]. - Demand is anticipated to rise in January due to the Spring Festival, but a subsequent decline in February and March may lead to further price drops despite reduced supply [31][15].