强成本遭遇弱需求 聚酯盈利水平下降

Core Viewpoint - The polyester market is experiencing price fluctuations driven by weak demand and rising costs, with upstream PX prices increasing and impacting the profitability of the industry [3][9]. Price Trends - In December, the polyester market prices initially fell to yearly lows, with polyester chips and polyester filament prices dropping to 5450 CNY/ton and 6225 CNY/ton respectively [9]. - By the end of December, prices for polyester short fibers and bottle flakes saw slight increases of 0.50% and 0.99% respectively, due to strong cost support from rising PX prices [9][12]. Profitability and Cost Dynamics - The profitability of the polyester industry has been negatively impacted, with upstream PX prices rising significantly, leading to a monthly gross profit increase of 350.72% for PX, while PTA's gross profit only increased by 0.3% [11][12]. - The polyester production sector is facing challenges as the weak demand from the weaving industry, with a utilization rate of only 61.5%, has resulted in an inability to absorb rising costs [11][12]. Market Conditions - The polyester industry is currently in a seasonal demand downturn, with companies preparing for potential inventory devaluation risks ahead of the Spring Festival [12]. - Despite the challenges, leading polyester manufacturers are expected to gradually stabilize and recover profitability as demand improves post-holiday [12].