美联储的两大误判（国金宏观钟天）

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's two major misjudgments this year are overestimating the weakening of labor supply and the inflation level transmitted by tariffs, reflecting a lack of clarity regarding the "K-shaped economy" and the impact of AI [3][34] - The economic landscape shows a coexistence of "summer growth" and "winter employment," with increasing pressure on small and medium-sized enterprises and a growing consumption divide among different income levels [3][38] - The Fed's decisions have been influenced by a "data dependency syndrome," where both the Fed and the market rely heavily on upcoming data releases to adjust their views, indicating a diminishing effectiveness of experiential knowledge [3][34] Group 2 - The labor supply issue was first mentioned by Powell on June 18, 2025, attributing the decline to a significant drop in immigration numbers [7][39] - The perception that labor supply began to weaken only after Trump's presidency is a misconception, as the Biden administration had already tightened illegal immigration by May 2024 [9][39] - Despite expectations of a labor supply decrease due to reduced illegal immigration, the unemployment rate has continued to rise, indicating that labor supply has not significantly decreased compared to the previous two years [11][41] Group 3 - The Fed's misjudgment regarding labor supply is attributed to three objective factors: cautious evaluation of immigration policies, the ineffectiveness of Trump's policies in significantly altering labor supply, and a weakening of domestic demand [16][47] - The current decline in illegal immigration numbers makes it difficult to see new marginal changes in labor supply in the short term, suggesting a need to refocus on demand-side stimulus rather than supply-side measures [18][49] Group 4 - The overestimation of tariff-induced inflation is another misjudgment by the Fed, linked to the further weakening of the U.S. real economy [18][49] - As of November, the U.S. has collected an additional $164 billion in tariffs compared to the previous year, but many exemptions and "import rushes" mean that these tariffs are not entirely borne by U.S. importers [18][49] - The weak U.S. economy is reflected in various sectors, with hotel occupancy rates and restaurant profits showing declines, indicating that tariff-sensitive industries are absorbing some of the tariff increases [19][50][54] Group 5 - The burden of tariffs varies significantly across different categories of goods, and this could amplify economic fluctuations in 2026, with potential increases in layoffs if the economy weakens further [25][56] - As of the end of 2025, the focus has shifted from tariff inflation to the overall weakness of the real economy, raising concerns about potential misjudgments by the Fed in 2026 amid new variables like midterm elections and AI industry trends [29][60]