长江有色：美指下跌年末流动性宽裕多重利好共振 29日镍价或上涨

Core Viewpoint - The nickel market is currently experiencing a complex interplay between supply constraints due to tightening policies in Indonesia and the reality of high inventories and weak demand, leading to a volatile trading environment [3][4]. Supply Side - The market is focused on Indonesia's policy developments, with discussions about significant reductions in nickel ore quotas and taxation on associated resources providing long-term support for prices [4]. - However, the immediate reality shows that Indonesia's existing production capacity is still being utilized, and global visible inventories, particularly LME stocks, are at multi-year highs, indicating significant oversupply pressure [4]. Demand Side - Demand has not provided effective support, particularly in the stainless steel sector, which is affected by weak performance in the real estate and manufacturing industries, leading steel mills to procure raw materials on a need basis [5]. - The anticipated growth in the new energy sector, particularly for high-nickel ternary batteries, has not materialized as expected, with the dominance of lithium iron phosphate battery technology limiting the demand for nickel sulfate [5]. Industry Chain and Future Market Outlook - The industry chain is experiencing differentiated conditions: upstream sectors are supported by policy expectations, while midstream smelters face challenges from high costs and low product prices [6]. - Downstream processing enterprises are hesitant to accept high prices, leading to a market characterized by "upstream heat and downstream cold" [6]. - The nickel price is expected to maintain a volatile trading range in the short term, with upward pressure from high inventories and weak fundamentals, while downward support comes from distant policy expectations and the breakeven point of high-cost production [6].