Jin Tou Wang·2025-12-29 04:05Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have experienced significant fluctuations, with a notable increase of over 70% this year, marking more than 50 new highs, which stands out compared to other assets [3] Group 1: Market Performance - As of December 29, gold futures are priced at $4534.60 per ounce, down $27.20 from the previous day, reflecting a decline of 0.60% [1] - The highest price during the day reached $4581.30 per ounce, while the lowest was $4490.30 per ounce [1] - The closing price from the previous day was $4562.00 per ounce, and the opening price today was $4568.00 per ounce [1] Group 2: Historical Context and Predictions - The current market conditions are compared to historical periods of geopolitical tension and dollar confidence erosion, specifically the years 1971-1974 and 1977-1980, suggesting a potential continuation of the upward trend in gold prices [3] - Goldman Sachs predicts that gold could reach $4900 by the end of 2026, while Deutsche Bank forecasts a price of $5150 by 2027, driven by strong demand [3] - In Q3, global gold purchases reached a record high of 1313 tons, primarily driven by central bank acquisitions, with a notable increase of 220 tons (+10%) by the end of October [3] Group 3: Central Bank Activities - The Polish central bank has been particularly aggressive, adding 12.4 tons in November, bringing its reserves to over 543 tons, exceeding those of the European Central Bank and the Bank of England [3] - Several countries bordering Russia, including Kazakhstan, Turkey, the Czech Republic, and Serbia, are also among the top gold purchasers, while Russia has been selling gold due to ongoing conflicts [3] Group 4: Technical Analysis - The February gold futures are currently in a high-level consolidation pattern, with the daily price supported by the upper Bollinger band and a bullish moving average system [4] - However, the RSI has entered the overbought territory (>70), indicating potential short-term volatility due to profit-taking [4] - Key support levels are identified at the $4500 mark, with resistance concentrated between $4520-4600 [4]