别再将AI比作互联网，AI有没有泡沫? 2026AI投资关键还看AI大模型的“迭代力”和“落地力”

Core Insights - The AI industry is poised for unprecedented growth opportunities as it transitions from being an "information connection tool" to a "productivity revolution" by 2026 [1][2] - The evolution of AI models will be gradual and substantial, enhancing capabilities in reasoning, memory, and content generation [2][3] Industry Trends - AI will increasingly serve as a key tool for productivity enhancement across various sectors, including advertising, e-commerce, AI hardware, and autonomous driving [2][3] - The advertising industry is expected to experience revolutionary changes due to improved multi-modal generation capabilities, which will drive performance growth in e-commerce [3] - The autonomous driving sector is anticipated to accelerate in 2026, with the first L3 autonomous driving models in China receiving approval, marking a significant step towards commercialization [3] Investment Opportunities - Investment opportunities will emerge in sectors where AI model capabilities are enhanced, particularly in advertising, AI hardware, and autonomous driving [3][4] - AI infrastructure will be a long-term investment opportunity, with increasing demand for storage and computing capabilities as AI models become more complex [4] - AI hardware, including devices like glasses, smartphones, and PCs, will face significant market tests in 2026, driven by the integration of multi-modal capabilities [4] Market Dynamics - In the U.S. market, AI remains a core theme driving technology stocks, with major tech companies' AI revenues beginning to cover depreciation costs [5] - The Hong Kong market is seeing a supportive liquidity environment, with AI model companies entering the IPO phase, indicating strong investment opportunities in AI infrastructure and applications [6] - The A-share market is focusing on industry chain collaboration and specific application scenarios, with domestic model companies entering a commercialization phase [6] Future Outlook - Concerns about excessive market gains should not hinder the growth of technology as performance improvements will naturally absorb valuation bubbles [7] - The first half of 2026 will serve as an observation window for the market, as stronger and more practical AI models are released [7] - The consensus will shift towards recognizing AI as a genuine growth driver rather than just an investment theme [7]