【债市观察】年末资金宽松DR001下触1.25% 利率短端走低驱动曲线向陡

Core Viewpoint - The financial market experienced a loose liquidity environment last week, leading to a decline in short-term interest rates, with DR001 dropping to 1.25% and a nearly 7 basis points decrease in the 1-year government bond yield [1] Market Overview - The yield changes for various government bonds from December 19 to December 26, 2025, were as follows: 1-year (-6.75 BP), 2-year (-3.74 BP), 3-year (-3.14 BP), 5-year (-0.73 BP), 7-year (-2.25 BP), 10-year (+0.68 BP), 30-year (-0.19 BP), and 50-year (-1.5 BP) [2] - The 10-year and 30-year government bond yields remained stable at 1.83% and 2.22%, respectively, indicating a steepening yield curve [1] Bond Market Activity - The bond market showed mixed performance with the 10-year government bond yield fluctuating slightly, closing at 1.8355% after a weekly change of +0.05 BP [5] - The trading sentiment in the bond market was cautious as year-end approached, with expectations for more incremental information to guide market movements [1] Government Bond Issuance - A total of 9 government bonds were issued last week, amounting to 210.08 billion yuan, including 3 government bonds worth 208.04 billion yuan and 6 local government bonds worth 2.037 billion yuan [6] International Bond Market - The U.S. Treasury yields experienced fluctuations, with the 10-year yield dropping by 2 BP to 4.72% and the 2-year yield also down by 2 BP to 3.48% [7] - Japan's government approved a record budget for the fiscal year 2026, raising concerns about the sustainability of its fiscal situation as the debt-to-GDP ratio reached 240% [8] Central Bank Operations - The central bank conducted various operations throughout the week, including 7-day reverse repos totaling 673 billion yuan to 930 billion yuan, and maintained the 1-year and 5-year Loan Prime Rates (LPR) at 3% and 3.5%, respectively [9][10] Economic Indicators - The National Bureau of Statistics reported a 0.1% year-on-year increase in profits for industrial enterprises from January to November 2025, with manufacturing profits growing by 5.0% [11] - The People's Bank of China emphasized the need for a stable monetary environment and plans to support key sectors and manage financial risks effectively [12]