崔东树：预计2026年1月车市可实现开门红 新能源车1季度有望微增5%

Core Viewpoint - The automotive market in China is expected to experience a positive start in January 2026, driven by continued proactive fiscal policies and moderate monetary policies, alongside early implementation of national subsidies [1][17]. Group 1: 2025 Market Overview - The overall retail sales of passenger vehicles in 2025 are projected to reach 2,378 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.7% [2]. - In November 2025, retail sales reached 2.22 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 8% and a month-on-month decrease of 1% [3]. - The cumulative retail sales from January to November 2025 were 21.48 million units, showing a year-on-year increase of 5% [3]. Group 2: Price Competition and Market Dynamics - The automotive market is shifting from price wars to value-based competition, with consumers increasingly focusing on product quality, experience, and lifecycle services [6]. - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles (NEVs) in the domestic market reached 59.3% in November 2025, indicating a significant shift towards electric vehicles [7]. Group 3: New Energy Vehicle Trends - In November 2025, pure electric vehicle sales grew by 9.2% year-on-year, while range-extended vehicles saw a decline of 4.3% [8]. - The market share of new forces in the automotive industry reached 22.1% in November 2025, an increase of 5.9 percentage points compared to the previous year [11]. Group 4: Future Projections for 2026 - The first quarter of 2026 is expected to see stable year-on-year performance, with a projected 5% increase in new energy vehicles, despite a 25% decrease compared to the fourth quarter of 2025 [1][17]. - The second half of 2026 is anticipated to show significant improvement in market conditions, supported by favorable policies and market dynamics [19]. Group 5: Consumer Preferences and Market Segmentation - The demand for large space vehicles is expected to grow due to changing family structures and government policies encouraging larger families [21]. - The shift in subsidy structures for new energy vehicles in 2026 is likely to favor high-end models while reducing support for low-cost electric vehicles, leading to a significant market transformation [22].