金价自历史高位回落 整体上行趋势未变

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are currently attempting to regain bullish momentum after retreating from a historical high of approximately $4,550 per ounce, trading around $4,513.09 per ounce, with expectations of continued volatility in the near term [1] Group 1: Market Data - As of December 20, the number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. fell to 214,000, down from the previous figure of 224,000, which was better than market expectations of 223,000 [1] - The market is awaiting the release of U.S. November pending home sales data, although its impact may be limited due to low liquidity conditions [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis - On a monthly basis, gold prices have rebounded strongly, dispelling bearish expectations from October's long upper shadow, with December showing further strength and breaking through trendline resistance, indicating potential for a new bull market targeting the $5,500-$6,000 range [2] - Weekly analysis shows that gold prices have maintained a strong upward trend, remaining above the ascending trendline, suggesting continued bullish momentum without forming a topping pattern [2] - Daily structure indicates that while gold has retreated from its historical high, the overall upward trend remains intact, with prices consistently above the 100-day exponential moving average, indicating a healthy medium-term bullish outlook [2] - The 14-day RSI is above 70, indicating an overbought condition and suggesting a need for short-term consolidation or pullback [2] - Key technical levels include $4,550 as immediate resistance, with potential further upside to $4,600 if broken, while initial support is at $4,430, with further levels at $4,338 and $4,300 if that support fails [2]