智通财经网·2025-12-29 06:13Core Viewpoint - The Chinese steel industry has achieved significant profit recovery in the context of weak demand, characterized by a unique phenomenon of "total contraction but profit growth" [1][3] Group 1: Profit Recovery Factors - From January to November 2025, the black metal smelting and rolling industry achieved a total profit of 111.5 billion yuan, a substantial year-on-year increase of 1752.2% [1] - The profit improvement is attributed to multiple factors including cost reductions, supply discipline, and product structure upgrades, with cost reductions being the primary driver [1][2] - The price decline of raw materials such as iron ore and coking coal has outpaced the decline in steel prices, creating a profit window for steel mills [2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - National crude steel production decreased by 3.9% year-on-year from January to October, while high-value-added products like coated plates and electrical steel saw production growth [2][3] - The steel industry is expected to continue in a weak balance of "supply contraction and demand pressure" in 2026, with ongoing policy-driven capacity reductions and a challenging real estate market [3] Group 3: Market Trends and Inventory - The total inventory of five major steel products increased by 13.4% year-on-year, indicating persistent demand weakness [3] - Weekly steel consumption showed a mixed trend, with construction materials declining by 3.2% while plate consumption increased by 1.4% [4] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - For ordinary steel, it is suggested to focus on high-dividend and leading companies in various downstream sectors due to the unclear recovery timeline in real estate [5] - The special steel sector is expected to grow rapidly, driven by domestic demand and global market share increases, with specific companies recommended for investment [5][6]