囤金近4000亿！巴菲特“无声”的最后警钟：历史预示2026年股市或迎剧变？

Core Insights - Berkshire Hathaway's cash reserves have surpassed $400 billion, exceeding the market capitalization of several large companies, indicating a strategic shift towards U.S. Treasury bonds as a safe asset while other investors chase AI stocks [1][2] - Warren Buffett's actions, particularly as he approaches retirement in early 2026, serve as a warning signal to investors about the current market conditions and potential future risks [1][3] Group 1: Cash Reserves - Since the beginning of the 2023 bull market, Berkshire Hathaway has increased its cash reserves from $100 billion to nearly $400 billion, largely due to a reduction in its Apple holdings from nearly $200 billion to $60 billion [2] - Buffett has also reduced or completely sold positions in several stocks, including U.S. Bank, while maintaining a cautious stance on AI stocks despite a recent small increase in Google shares [2] Group 2: Market Sentiment - Buffett's accumulation of cash during a time of heightened market enthusiasm for technology stocks suggests a belief that the current market is nearing a bubble phase rather than a pre-recession period [3] - The average P/E ratio of the S&P 500 is approaching historical peaks, with each of the "seven giants" in the AI sector exceeding a P/E ratio of 30 [3] Group 3: Investment Strategy - Buffett's cash strategy indicates a lack of attractive buying opportunities in the current market, emphasizing a patient approach until valuations return to reasonable levels [4] - Investors are cautioned not to blindly follow Buffett's strategy of liquidating all stock holdings, as individual financial situations vary significantly [4]