经济学家：欧洲增长前景取决于德国万亿支出计划

Core Viewpoint - The hope for economic growth in Europe by 2026 largely relies on Germany's €1 trillion infrastructure and defense spending plan funded through bond issuance, but economists are divided on whether this fiscal stimulus can lead to a "European revival" due to persistent structural weaknesses and geopolitical uncertainties [1][2][3]. Economic Growth Projections - The eurozone growth rate is expected to slow by 0.2 percentage points to 1.2% by 2026, with a rebound to 1.4% in 2027, aligning with the latest European Central Bank (ECB) forecasts [1][3]. - Economists previously concerned about the ECB's slow interest rate cuts have been proven wrong, as the eurozone's growth rate for 2025 is projected to reach 1.4%, significantly higher than the earlier forecast of 0.9% [3]. Fiscal Stimulus and Economic Resilience - Optimists believe that fiscal stimulus will enhance economic resilience, with some predicting a potential upward surprise in private consumption [2][3]. - The chief economist of TAC Economics expressed concerns about whether fiscal stimulus can translate into sustained domestic demand rather than merely buffering external shocks [3]. Inflation and Monetary Policy - A majority of economists agree that the ECB has managed to control inflation, with nearly 80% predicting a return to the 2% mid-term target for inflation by 2027, while slightly decreasing to 1.9% in 2026 [4]. - Three-quarters of respondents expect the ECB's main deposit rate to remain at 2% until the end of 2026, with an average increase to only 2.25% before the end of 2027 [4]. Concerns About Government Spending - Some economists question the effectiveness of Berlin's policies, suggesting that government spending may mechanically boost German growth but the key issue is whether it will lead to a broad recovery [5]. - Skeptics warn that new borrowing may be directed towards welfare and recurring expenditures rather than new investments, and the impact of defense spending on growth may be limited [5].