年终盘点之加密货币：2025年是走向“主流合规”的分水岭之年，比特币狂欢过后满地狼藉，稳定币开始走向舞台中心

Core Insights - 2024 is seen as the year when cryptocurrencies enter traditional finance through spot ETFs, while 2025 is viewed as a watershed year for cryptocurrencies, marking their transition from speculative assets to core infrastructure for global finance [1] - The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies surged from approximately $1.6 trillion at the beginning of the year to over $4 trillion, driven by institutional capital, regulatory policies, and practical applications [2][1] - Bitcoin's price fluctuated significantly, reaching a peak of $126,000 in October before dropping to around $89,000 by December, reflecting a volatile market influenced by macroeconomic factors [2][9] Market Dynamics - The volatility of the cryptocurrency market in 2025 shifted from erratic price movements to being influenced by Federal Reserve policies, non-farm payroll data, and legislative progress [5] - Bitcoin's price dynamics were characterized by a psychological battle, with a peak driven by the approval of spot ETFs and expectations of national strategic reserves, followed by a sharp decline due to tightening monetary policy [6][9] - Ethereum experienced dramatic price movements, rising nearly 200% from $1,646 to $4,946 before ending the year down approximately 12% at around $3,000, facing increased competition in the public blockchain space [10] Institutional Involvement - The bull market for major cryptocurrencies in 2025 was primarily driven by institutional participation, with ETFs and other institutional channels seeing a net inflow of $44.2 billion [15][16] - Regulatory clarity, particularly with the enactment of the GENIUS Act, allowed institutions to enter the cryptocurrency market legally and at scale, although it also introduced high compliance costs [17][16] - The correlation between cryptocurrencies and traditional equities, particularly the Nasdaq index, reversed, with cryptocurrency market downturns impacting stock markets due to forced liquidations by institutions [14] Stablecoins and Infrastructure - Stablecoins transitioned from being peripheral to becoming a core infrastructure for global capital flow, with a total market capitalization exceeding $310 billion and daily settlement volumes rivaling traditional payment giants [24][23] - The transaction volume of stablecoins reached $46 trillion, reflecting a 106% increase year-over-year, indicating their growing importance in the financial ecosystem [24] - The infrastructure supporting stablecoins improved significantly, reducing transaction costs and settlement times, which facilitated their integration into traditional financial systems [25] Future Outlook - The cryptocurrency market is expected to evolve from a speculative environment to one focused on compliance, value, and long-term capital, with institutionalization and mainstream adoption deepening [30][31] - Predictions for 2026 suggest a favorable market environment due to potential interest rate cuts and improved global liquidity, with a shift towards long-term stable asset allocation through ETFs and on-chain treasury solutions [31] - The integration of AI and blockchain is anticipated to accelerate, providing critical solutions for trust, payment, and decentralization, marking a significant narrative for the future of the industry [31]