这位博士基金经理，把“涨价”和“反内卷”说透了

Core Insights - The cyclical sector has shown strong performance this year, prompting inquiries about investment strategies in this area [1][22] - Sun Huicheng, a fund manager at CITIC Prudential Fund, has developed a clear and executable investment framework based on over a decade of research in the chemical and non-ferrous metals industries [1][24] Investment Framework - Sun's investment strategy focuses on identifying companies with upward revisions in profit expectations, employing three main approaches: 1. Seek "perfect businesses" that can sustain price increases, such as the refrigerant industry, which benefits from stable pricing dynamics [5][26] 2. Target industries where prices have bottomed out and are poised for a rebound, like spandex and coal chemical sectors [6][27] 3. Identify companies with advanced production capabilities that the market is skeptical about, allowing for early investment before performance validation [7][27] Market Outlook - Sun's macroeconomic perspective is illustrated through a "macro clock" concept, focusing on two main themes: 1. Non-ferrous metals, particularly aluminum and copper, are expected to perform well in the current hawkish environment of the Federal Reserve, with aluminum being favored due to limited new supply and strong demand [9][29][30] 2. The chemical industry is seen as a sector with significant potential during the transition from deflation to inflation in China, driven by supply-side reforms and the "anti-involution" policy [11][31][32] Specific Sector Focus - In the non-ferrous metals sector, aluminum is highlighted for its price elasticity and potential profit growth, while gold is suggested for later in the year as a hedge against inflation [10][30] - In the chemical sector, Sun emphasizes the importance of price elasticity and the impact of supply-side policies, focusing on spandex, large refining, and PTA (polyester) chains as key areas for investment [12][32][33][34]