债券配置需求边际回暖，静待扰动因素落地

Group 1: Monetary Policy and Market Liquidity - The central bank's net injection of liquidity was 35.7 billion yuan on December 19, followed by a net withdrawal of 183.6 billion yuan on December 22, indicating a fluctuating liquidity environment [2][15] - The central bank conducted a 400 billion yuan one-year MLF operation on December 15, with a net injection of 100 billion yuan due to 300 billion yuan of MLF maturing this month [16] - Interbank liquidity remained loose, with overnight funding rates stable and minor fluctuations in repo rates observed throughout the week [2][15] Group 2: International Monetary Policy Insights - European Central Bank Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel stated that interest rates are unlikely to rise in the foreseeable future unless unexpected events occur, which has led investors to increase bets on future rate hikes [3][16] - The Bank of Japan's recent meeting minutes indicated a consensus on the potential for future rate hikes, contingent on economic and price forecasts, while also expressing caution due to signs of weakness in the U.S. labor market [3][16] Group 3: Domestic Bond Market Trends - The total custody volume of China Central Depository & Clearing Co., Ltd. increased by 1.1 trillion yuan to 128.16 trillion yuan in November, with major institutions, excluding foreign entities and brokerages, increasing their bond holdings [4][17] - Commercial banks have resumed their role as primary bond holders, driven by high loan-to-deposit ratios, while the sentiment in the bond market has been weak, with brokerages and foreign institutions reducing their bond positions [4][17] - The demand for bond allocation is showing signs of marginal recovery, with potential increases in bank deposit growth if corporate foreign exchange settlement demand is released [4][17] Group 4: Investment Opportunities in National Development ETF - The National Development ETF (159650) focuses on interbank market national development bonds, characterized by high credit ratings, large volumes, and good liquidity, making them attractive investment targets [5][18] - The ETF offers features such as good liquidity, low credit risk, and reasonable risk-return ratios, making it a suitable tool for short-duration allocations [5][18]