光大期货1229热点追踪： PX冲高回落，关注下游负反馈情况

Core Viewpoint - PX prices have experienced a significant pullback after a week of continuous increase, with a maximum daily decline exceeding 3%, leading the decline among chemical products [3][7]. Price Movement - The recent price drop is attributed to a decline in crude oil prices, despite ongoing geopolitical issues that have not escalated further [3][7]. - The market is reacting to the reality of oversupply in crude oil and rising inventories, which has lowered the cost line for chemical products, impacting previously high PX and PTA prices [3][7]. Fundamental Analysis - As of December 26, China's PX operating load is at 88.2%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous period [3][7]. - The total PX imports to mainland China in November 2025 are approximately 817,000 tons, reflecting a 1% decrease month-on-month and a 16.3% decrease year-on-year [3][7]. - Weekly PX prices have continued to rise, with PXN significantly expanding, and an increase in the restart of domestic and international facilities [3][7]. Industry Dynamics - The downstream TA processing fees have also recovered, with increased facility changes; however, the terminal market is under significant pressure [3][7]. - There is a growing contradiction between the unilateral price increase of upstream raw materials and the cost transmission issues faced by downstream yarn and fabric manufacturers due to weak orders [3][7]. - The compression of profits in the polyester segment is becoming evident, with potential further declines in polyester operating loads due to production cut plans from the three major polyester manufacturers [3][7]. Market Sentiment - The ongoing battle between current realities and future expectations remains a focal point for market participants, with caution advised regarding the potential for PX prices to retreat after reaching highs [3][7].