Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC indicates that aluminum prices have significantly underperformed copper prices during the current wave of rising non-ferrous metals, with LME copper rising by 27.2% and LME aluminum by only 11.2% since the beginning of the year, leading to a copper-aluminum ratio increase to 4.4 [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - CICC attributes the disparity in performance to two main factors: copper's stronger financial attributes under favorable macro conditions and the global inventory imbalance caused by the U.S. siphoning effect [1] - From a balance sheet perspective, CICC anticipates that aluminum may perform tighter than copper by 2026, with liquidity benefits potentially already priced in [1] Group 2: Supply Forecast - CICC forecasts that aluminum supply will initially be low and then increase, but the overall increment will remain limited, with a projected net increase of approximately 1.1 million tons of electrolytic aluminum in 2026, representing a year-on-year growth of 1.5% [1] - The report highlights that the pace of future electrolytic aluminum projects in Indonesia may be slower than expected due to power supply constraints, despite the apparent sufficiency of planned capacity [2] Group 3: Long-term Constraints - CICC emphasizes that the supply constraints in electrolytic aluminum reflect the scarcity of an efficient industrial system, which is an external factor to the industry [2] - The report suggests that while short-term capital expenditure issues in mining may be resolved through price incentives, the construction pace of the industrial system is not influenced by electrolytic aluminum prices, indicating a more rigid long-term supply constraint [2] Group 4: Demand and Cost Factors - On the demand side, aluminum benefits from its cost-effectiveness, facing weaker negative feedback from downstream sectors, with scenarios of substituting aluminum for copper expanding into air conditioning applications [2] - The report notes that concerns about demand overextension in the first half of the year have not materialized, driven by export demand for end products, and that the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) will slightly increase the overall cost curve for the industry [2]
中金：料明年铝供应前低后高 整体增量仍有限