短期基本面没有亮点 预计燃料油维持偏弱格局

News Summary Core Viewpoint - Iran has seized a foreign oil tanker near the Iranian island of Qeshm in the Gulf, claiming it was carrying 4 million liters of smuggled fuel [1] - Singapore's fuel oil inventory has increased by 1.058 million barrels to a two-week high of 25.716 million barrels as of the week ending December 24 [1] - The Russian government has extended the temporary export ban on gasoline and other fuels until February 28, 2026, affecting all exporters except direct producers [1] Group 1: Geopolitical Factors - High sulfur fuel oil supply is primarily disrupted by geopolitical factors, with shipping schedules in the Middle East and Russia slowed due to sanctions and conflicts [2] - Despite some progress in Russia-Ukraine negotiations, a short-term ceasefire remains difficult [2] Group 2: Demand and Supply Dynamics - Refinery profits are improving, and U.S. sanctions on Venezuelan oil exports may boost high sulfur feedstock demand [2] - Singapore's inventory continues to accumulate, coupled with increased floating storage, indicating significant pressure from high inventory levels [2] - Overall, geopolitical issues provide short-term price support but do not fundamentally change the narrative of supply surplus [2] Group 3: Low Sulfur Supply and Market Outlook - Low sulfur supply is primarily driven by overseas refinery operations, with short-term port pressure manageable due to maintenance at the Azur refinery [2] - The resumption of operations at the Azur refinery and maintenance at the Dangote refinery will likely restore supply [2] - The first batch of low sulfur export quotas for 2026 will be on par with last year, indicating overall ample supply [2] - Demand for marine fuel consumption remains weak due to high sulfur alternatives, with a marginal recovery expected during the traditional peak season at year-end, but the weak market structure is unlikely to change [2] - The extension of the Russian diesel export ban may indirectly support low sulfur price trends [2] Group 4: Market Sentiment - Overall, the short-term fundamentals lack highlights, with costs primarily following crude oil fluctuations [3] - Key support levels for the main contracts are noted, with FU main contract support around 2400 and LU main contract support around 2950 [3]