智通财经网·2025-12-29 08:33Core Viewpoint - The report from Cinda Securities indicates that Tabo (06110) has experienced a high single-digit year-on-year decline in total sales for its retail and wholesale businesses in Q3 of the fiscal year 2025/26, aligning with previous performance guidance trends [1] Group 1: Retail and Wholesale Performance - Retail business continues to outperform wholesale, with manageable discount and inventory situations, reflecting strong retail management capabilities [2] - The decline in retail sales is less severe than that in wholesale, with offline sales showing improvement while online growth is weakening due to high base effects [2] - Overall discount rates in direct retail have deepened year-on-year, but the extent of discounting has narrowed compared to the first half of the fiscal year [2] - Total inventory at the end of the period has decreased year-on-year, with good turnover efficiency and a slight improvement in inventory age structure [2] - The network of stores is continuously optimized, with a 13.4% year-on-year and 1.3% quarter-on-quarter reduction in gross sales area of direct stores, and the pace of store closures has slowed compared to Q2 [2] Group 2: Collaboration with Core Brands - The collaboration with Nike is expected to deepen, as both companies face similar pressures in the Chinese market regarding foot traffic, sell-through rates, and inventory challenges [3] - Strategies include increased support for product recovery and adjustments to 2026 spring/summer orders to manage new inventory shipments [3] - Joint efforts are being made to regulate online market order and promote unified pricing management [3] - The company is anticipated to navigate through the downturn alongside its core clients, with potential for future recovery [3] Group 3: New Business Development - The company is steadily advancing its new business layout, with successful launches in specialized segments [4] - The running category has seen the establishment of the Ektos brand store, enhancing brand recognition through participation in major events like the Shanghai Marathon [4] - In the outdoor category, the exclusive agency for the high-end Norwegian outdoor brand Norrøna has been established, with plans for expansion into more cities [4] - The company is focused on creating new growth curves through the introduction of new categories [4] Group 4: Financial Guidance - The company has adopted a conservative financial outlook, noting increased volatility in terminal demand since December and significant operational pressures [5] - The previously set target of "year-on-year net profit flat" is expected to deviate within a controllable range [5] - The company maintains a "short-term cautious, long-term optimistic" stance [5] - Profit forecasts for FY2026-2028 are projected at HKD 1.285 billion, 1.397 billion, and 1.528 billion, with corresponding P/E ratios of 14.52X, 13.36X, and 12.21X [5]