特朗普关税下，墨西哥对美出口不降反升

Core Insights - Despite initial concerns about the impact of increased tariffs on Mexico's economy, exports to the U.S. have continued to grow, demonstrating resilience in the face of trade challenges [1][2]. Group 1: Export Performance - Mexico's exports to the U.S. have not only remained stable but have also increased, with a nearly 9% year-on-year growth from January to November, despite high tariffs on certain products like automobiles, steel, and aluminum [2]. - The total trade volume between Mexico and the U.S. is expected to reach nearly $900 billion, setting a new historical record [2]. - The automotive sector saw a decline of nearly 6% in exports, but other manufacturing exports surged by 17%, offsetting the downturn in the automotive industry [2]. Group 2: Economic Outlook - The resilience in export performance has led to an improved outlook for Mexico's overall economy, with the central bank projecting a growth of 0.3% in 2025, a significant improvement from the previous expectation of a 1% contraction [2]. - Mexico's effective tariff rate stands at approximately 4.7%, significantly lower than the global average of around 10%, providing a competitive advantage [5]. Group 3: Corporate Sentiment - Companies are increasingly optimistic about manufacturing in Mexico, with many resuming previously shelved investment projects following the announcement that Mexico would not face new tariffs [4]. - The USMCA agreement continues to play a crucial role, with about 85% of Mexico's total exports still benefiting from tariff-free treatment under this framework [4]. Group 4: Trade Dynamics - Mexico has absorbed about 25% of the reduction in the U.S. trade deficit with China, highlighting its critical role in the U.S. supply chain [6]. - The integration of Mexico into the North American manufacturing system is deeply entrenched, making the reversal of agreements like the USMCA costly [6].