Stifel警告明年标普500指数或在6500至7500点区间宽幅震荡

Core Viewpoint - Stifel's chief equity strategist Barry Bannister warns that the U.S. stock market will face significant macroeconomic uncertainty in 2026, with the S&P 500 index expected to fluctuate between 6500 and 7500 points due to underlying economic contradictions [1] Economic Analysis - The report highlights three main pressures contributing to market vulnerability: concerns over consumer resilience, diminishing policy effectiveness, and overextension of capital expenditures in the tech sector [1] - Two extreme scenarios are outlined: - In a bullish scenario, if cyclical industry earnings recover, S&P 500 component EPS could grow by 13%, potentially pushing the index to a high of 7500 points (+9%), contingent on successful transmission of tech capital expenditures to the real economy [1] - In a bearish scenario, a slowdown in personal consumption, which accounts for 68% of U.S. GDP, could lead to a recession risk of 25%, with the index potentially dropping to 6500 points (-5%) [1] Tactical Recommendations - In light of high volatility, Stifel recommends tactical adjustments to stock holdings, suggesting defensive assets such as healthcare, consumer staples, and gold to hedge against risks associated with tech growth stocks [1] - The current economic growth and inflation environment is seen as more favorable for defensive sectors [1]