有色“集体狂欢”掀看涨热潮，铸造铝强势上行

Core Viewpoint - The aluminum alloy market is experiencing price increases driven by macroeconomic factors and strong demand, although future demand uncertainties and high inventory levels may limit further price gains [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The main contract for casting aluminum alloy (2602) opened with a brief drop but rebounded, closing at 21,590 yuan, an increase of 195 yuan or 0.91% [1]. - The trading volume for the day was 9,139 lots, a decrease of 3,705 lots, while open interest fell by 1,147 lots to 6,056 [1]. Group 2: Price Movements - On December 29, the average price for casting aluminum alloy ingots (A356.2) was reported at 23,900 yuan/ton, up by 300 yuan; A380 ingots averaged 23,500 yuan/ton, also up by 300 yuan; ADC12 averaged 22,100 yuan/ton, increasing by 200 yuan; ZL102 averaged 23,300 yuan/ton, up by 300 yuan; and ZLD104 averaged 23,200 yuan/ton, rising by 300 yuan [1]. Group 3: Fundamental Analysis - The current price surge for ADC12 provides strong support for futures prices, while high scrap aluminum prices and tight supply continue to exert cost support [2]. - As of December 26, aluminum alloy weekly inventory stood at 52,300 tons, slightly down from the previous week but still at historically high levels [2]. - The market is experiencing a positive trading atmosphere, with increased buying activity driven by bullish expectations and pre-holiday stocking needs [2]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Despite strong support for aluminum alloy prices, expectations of weakening demand and high inventory levels in the recycled aluminum sector may limit upward price momentum [2].