从2万元/千克位置狂泄直下，日内一度回调2500元/千克，沪银上演过山车，为何午后突然跳水？

Core Viewpoint - The silver market experienced extreme volatility, with prices initially surging to nearly 20,000 yuan per kilogram before plummeting by 2,500 yuan to a low of 17,500 yuan, closing at 18,205 yuan [1] Group 1: Silver Market Dynamics - Silver futures on the Shanghai market saw a dramatic rise of over 10%, reaching a peak of 19,998 yuan per kilogram before a sharp decline [1] - The afternoon trading session witnessed silver prices breaking through key support levels of 19,000 and 18,000 yuan, ultimately closing at 18,205 yuan [1] - The international silver price fluctuated significantly, initially exceeding 83 USD per ounce before dropping to around 75 USD, indicating high volatility in the market [6] Group 2: Other Precious Metals - Platinum and palladium also faced significant declines, with platinum dropping 10% to 634.35 yuan per kilogram and palladium falling 10% to 494.1 yuan per kilogram [3] - The price of palladium experienced a daily drop of 12%, falling below 1,700 USD per ounce [6] Group 3: Market Influences - Market analysts attribute the sudden drop in silver prices to profit-taking and geopolitical developments, particularly discussions between Trump and Zelensky regarding a potential peace agreement in Ukraine [8] - Despite geopolitical easing, the supply-demand relationship for silver remains tight, with a projected demand of 1.24 billion ounces against a supply of only 1.01 billion ounces, leading to a structural deficit [9] Group 4: Inventory and Future Outlook - Silver inventories have significantly decreased, with COMEX silver stocks down 70% since 2020 and London vaults down 40%, raising concerns about available supply [10] - Analysts suggest that the recent trading activity in precious metals may lead to increased volatility, especially with the upcoming New Year holiday and potential profit-taking by long positions [10] - Long-term trends such as geopolitical risks and central bank gold purchases are expected to support gold prices, with projections indicating a potential rise to 5,000 USD per ounce by 2026 [10]