申万宏源:首次覆盖京东工业(07618)予“买入”评级 长期增长空间广阔
智通财经网·2025-12-29 10:00

Core Viewpoint - JD Industrial is positioned as a leading digital industrial supply chain service provider in China, with significant growth potential driven by infrastructure development, industry standards establishment, and asset-light expansion strategies [1][2]. Group 1: Company Overview - JD Industrial has established itself as the largest participant in the domestic MRO procurement service market by 2024, serving 11,100 key enterprise clients and offering approximately 81.1 million SKUs across 80 product categories sourced from around 158,000 suppliers [2]. - The company generates most of its revenue from industrial product (MRO) sales, with projected revenue of 20.398 billion yuan and adjusted net profit of 909 million yuan for 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 25.4% and 21.9% from 2021 to 2024 [3]. Group 2: Market Potential - The Chinese industrial supply chain market is the largest globally, projected to reach 11.4 trillion yuan in 2024, with a digital penetration rate of only 6.2%, significantly lower than the 15% in the U.S. [3]. - The MRO procurement market in China is expected to reach 3.7 trillion yuan by 2024, with a CAGR of 6.1% from 2019 to 2024, while the digital MRO market is projected to grow to 400 billion yuan with a CAGR of 21.7% during the same period [3]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - JD Industrial holds a market share of 4.1% in the domestic industrial supply chain technology and service market, with the second-largest player at only 1.5%, indicating a highly fragmented market with potential for consolidation through digitalization [4]. - In the MRO procurement market, JD Industrial's market share is 0.8%, with the second player at 0.3%, highlighting the low concentration in the industry [4]. Group 4: Operational Efficiency - The company operates with a high inventory turnover rate of 24 times in 2024, significantly outperforming comparable domestic and international firms, achieved through direct supplier shipments and reduced self-operated inventory [6]. - JD Industrial's focus on digital supply chain infrastructure has led to decreasing marginal costs and a downward trend in expense ratios, with projected per capita sales revenue contribution reaching 25 million yuan [6]. Group 5: Profit Forecast - The company is expected to achieve adjusted net profits of 1.096 billion yuan, 1.735 billion yuan, and 2.301 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 20.5%, 58.4%, and 32.6% [7]. - Based on a target PE of 24X and projected adjusted net profit of 1.735 billion yuan for 2026, the target market value is estimated at 41.2 billion yuan, indicating a 24% upside potential from current levels [7].