GTC泽汇资本:白银强势后的再平衡

Core Viewpoint - Silver has experienced a significant price surge, moving from around $29 to nearly $80 by the end of the year, reflecting a concentrated response to long-term supply-demand imbalances [1][2][3] Market Performance - The rise in silver prices was not abrupt but rather a gradual increase supported by multiple corrections and confirmations of support levels, indicating real demand rather than mere speculation [3] - The price fluctuations in April and May laid a solid foundation for the accelerated rally from June to December [3] 2026 Outlook - There is a notable divergence in market expectations for 2026, with some institutions predicting that inventory replenishment and high prices may suppress demand, potentially leading to a price retreat [3][4] - Conversely, analysts emphasize that the long-term growth logic for industrial silver, investment demand, and new energy applications remains unchanged [3][4] - GTC ZEHUI Capital anticipates that silver will likely exhibit "high-level wide fluctuations" in 2026 rather than a simple one-sided increase or rapid reversal [4] Supply and Demand Dynamics - High silver prices may temporarily suppress some demand; however, the strategic attributes of silver are strengthening amid ongoing global industrial upgrades and technological investments [4] - As long as core industrial demand remains resilient, silver is unlikely to revert to previously undervalued pricing levels [4] - Even if silver experiences a phase of adjustment in 2026, its long-term structural value is expected to persist, reflecting a market revaluation of future supply-demand tightness rather than the end of a bubble [4]