Moneta Markets 外汇:美元前景承压

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the artificial intelligence industry is seen as a significant pillar for future economic growth, helping to support the resilience of the US economy in the short term and reducing recession risks [1][2] - The dollar index is expected to fluctuate between 98 and 102 by 2026, with short-term benefits from a relatively stable economic foundation, but the downward trend in interest rates is a key constraint [3][5] - The dollar index has fallen approximately 9% this year, even dipping below the 100 mark, while gold prices have risen over 65% and silver prices have increased by more than 100% in the past 12 months [4] Group 2 - The market anticipates a continued loose monetary environment, with large fiscal deficits limiting the sustainability of high interest rates, making it difficult for monetary policy to maintain a tight stance in the long term [4] - The ongoing diversification of global foreign exchange reserves and asset allocation is reflected in the sustained strength of gold and silver, indicating a rebalancing of global funds within the monetary system [4][5] - The dollar's performance is likely to exhibit "range-bound and weak" characteristics in the long term, with structural pressures from declining interest rates, fiscal constraints, and the global de-dollarization process, while the strategic value of precious metals and diversified currency allocations is expected to become more prominent [5]