气温预期上调美国气价回落、库存提取欧洲气价微增，25M11国内用气需求边际改善

Core Viewpoint - The report indicates a mixed outlook for the natural gas market, with U.S. prices declining while European prices show slight increases, driven by changes in temperature expectations and inventory levels [1][2][3]. Price Tracking - U.S. natural gas prices decreased by 8.2% week-on-week, while European gas prices increased by 0.9% [2][3]. - As of December 26, 2025, the prices for various natural gas benchmarks are as follows: U.S. HH at 0.8 yuan/cubic meter, European TTF at 2.4 yuan/cubic meter, East Asia JKM at 2.5 yuan/cubic meter, and Chinese LNG at 2.6 yuan/cubic meter [2]. Supply and Demand Analysis - The U.S. natural gas storage decreased by 1,670 billion cubic feet to 35,790 billion cubic feet, a year-on-year decline of 1.2% [1][3]. - European natural gas consumption from January to September 2025 reached 3,138 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 4.1% [3]. - European gas supply increased by 45.3% week-on-week to 106,928 GWh during December 18-24, 2025, with significant contributions from inventory consumption and LNG terminals [3]. - Domestic natural gas prices decreased by 2.9% week-on-week, with a year-on-year increase in apparent consumption of 1.5% to 3,920 billion cubic meters from January to November 2025 [3]. Pricing Progress - As of November 2025, 67% of cities in China have implemented residential pricing adjustments, with an average increase of 0.22 yuan/cubic meter [4]. Investment Recommendations - The outlook for 2025 suggests a relaxed supply environment and cost optimization for gas companies, with a focus on companies like Xinao Energy, China Resources Gas, and Kunlun Energy, which are expected to benefit from pricing adjustments and demand growth [5]. - Companies with quality long-term contracts and cost advantages, such as Jiufeng Energy and Xinao Holdings, are highlighted for their potential [5]. - The report emphasizes the importance of energy self-sufficiency amid uncertainties in U.S. gas imports, recommending companies with production capabilities like New Natural Gas and Blue Flame Holdings [5].