如何看待近期人民币汇率持续走强？

Core Viewpoint - The recent strengthening of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar has raised market attention, with various factors contributing to this trend, including a weaker dollar, resilient Chinese exports, and increased attractiveness of RMB assets [1]. Group 1: Factors Influencing RMB Strength - The RMB has appreciated significantly since April 2025, moving from approximately 7.35 to around 7.01 against the US dollar [1]. - The recent rise in the RMB is attributed to a combination of a weaker dollar, robust export performance, and enhanced appeal of RMB-denominated assets [1]. - Seasonal peaks in corporate foreign exchange settlement demand have been noted, but data indicates a decrease in the settlement and purchase rates, suggesting companies are using their foreign exchange earnings to offset expenditures rather than engaging in blind currency exchanges [2]. Group 2: Impact on Residents - A stronger RMB reduces costs for cross-border consumption, studying abroad, and tourism, allowing for more favorable exchange rates [3]. - For instance, converting 10,000 USD for tuition at a rate of 7.3 could save approximately 3,000 RMB [3]. - However, residents holding USD deposits or investments may see a decrease in asset value when converted to RMB [3]. Group 3: Impact on Enterprises - Export-oriented companies may face direct pressure due to reduced exchange profits from currency conversion, while manufacturing firms reliant on imported materials will benefit from lower import costs, improving profitability [4]. - Cross-border investment returns may be negatively impacted by currency exchange factors [5]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Recommendations - The RMB is expected to fluctuate around the 7.0 mark, with market consensus becoming less uniform after breaching this level, introducing uncertainty in future exchange rates [5][6]. - The People's Bank of China emphasizes the need for resilience in the foreign exchange market and aims to maintain the RMB at a reasonable and balanced level, advising residents and enterprises to manage risks effectively [7].