2026年税收调整将对美国经济产生重大影响

Core Viewpoint - Economists believe that the tax reduction policies introduced by the Trump administration's "Great American Plan" will become the core driving force of economic activity for individuals and businesses in the U.S. by 2026 [1][4]. Individual Tax Reduction Policies - Adjustments to personal tax rates and tax deductions will enhance household financial reserves in early 2026 through increased tax refund amounts during tax season and revised withholding tax standards, leading to higher disposable income [2][5]. - The plan aims to make the low tax rates for personal and corporate income taxes from the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act permanent, extend the standard deduction policy, and increase the estate tax exemption from $14 million to $15 million [6][8]. - By 2029, tax exemptions will apply to tips up to $25,000 and overtime pay up to $12,500, with gradual phase-out for individuals earning over $150,000 [6][8]. - A new tax deduction policy will provide up to $6,000 for individuals aged 65 and older by 2029, and a maximum of $10,000 tax deduction for interest on auto loans for domestically assembled vehicles [6][8]. - The state and local tax (SALT) deduction cap will be raised from $10,000 to $40,000, benefiting wealthy homeowners in high-tax states like New York and New Jersey [6][8]. Corporate Tax Incentives - The core objective of corporate tax adjustments is to stimulate business investment by extending low tax rate policies and increasing the tax-deductible proportion of capital expenditures and R&D expenses [3][7]. - The plan allows full tax deductions for specific equipment purchases, which was set to phase out by 2027, and permits full tax deductions for domestic R&D costs, with small businesses able to retroactively deduct R&D expenses incurred since 2022 [6][8]. - Interest expense deduction limits will be relaxed, reverting to a calculation that includes amortization costs, which could enhance corporate cash flow [6][8]. - The plan extends and increases tax relief for "pass-through" business owners, allowing them to deduct up to 20% of their income, although experts express skepticism about its effectiveness in driving economic growth [6][8].