美债市场“走钢丝”！特朗普政府勉力压低收益率 表面平静之下暗流涌动

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. bond market is experiencing a fragile state of calm amid concerns over long-term fiscal deficits and rising debt levels, with recent government actions aimed at controlling bond yields and maintaining market stability [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Reactions and Government Actions - Following President Trump's announcement of significant tariffs in April, the bond market faced turmoil, leading to a notable increase in bond yields, which has since prompted the government to adjust its policies to prevent further market disruptions [1][5]. - On November 5, the U.S. Treasury hinted at increasing long-term debt issuance, causing a spike in the 10-year Treasury yield by over 6 basis points, reflecting investor concerns about rising yield pressures [1]. - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin emphasized the importance of lowering yields, particularly the 10-year Treasury yield, as it impacts various borrowing costs across the economy [2][3]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment and Market Dynamics - A survey of banking and asset management executives revealed a belief that a psychological battle is ongoing between the government and investors worried about high deficits and debt levels, as indicated by rising "term premiums" [2]. - Investors perceive the government's recent measures as temporary solutions, with ongoing concerns about the sustainability of fiscal policies and potential inflationary pressures from tariffs and AI-driven market dynamics [4][6]. - The Treasury's proactive engagement with investors regarding major decisions has led to a belief that the government is serious about controlling bond yields [3][7]. Group 3: Economic Indicators and Future Outlook - The current stability in the bond market is seen as a "fragile balance," dependent on moderate inflation expectations and the Treasury's reliance on short-term debt issuance to mitigate supply concerns [8]. - Analysts express concerns that if inflation rises or the Federal Reserve adopts a more hawkish stance, the attractiveness of U.S. Treasuries as a risk diversifier may diminish, leading to renewed demand worries [8][9]. - The reliance on short-term Treasury bills for deficit financing poses risks, as some demand sources, including stablecoin issuers, may be volatile [8].