【首席观察】2025年预测错了多少？2026年资本风口在哪里？

Group 1 - The year 2025 has been characterized by significant market volatility, with the S&P 500 index showing an annual increase of over 17%, while gold prices surged by more than 70% to reach $4,500 per ounce [2][4][6] - Despite predictions of a recession, the market did not follow the expected downturn, indicating that risk assets have not reacted as anticipated to economic fears [7][8] - The performance of various assets in 2025 revealed a stark contrast, with silver leading gains at 173.13%, followed by gold at 73.91%, while light crude oil experienced a decline of 19.63% [4][5] Group 2 - The market's resilience in 2025 was attributed to a shift in how fear is priced, with investors adapting to a new financial order where risks are managed through structured approaches [3][8] - The five key variables driving market behavior in 2025 included the revaluation of dollar credit risk, the rise of real assets, and the dynamics of energy pricing, which reflected broader economic uncertainties [9][10] - The focus on AI as a growth narrative has intensified, with capital increasingly concentrated in technology sectors, indicating a shift towards profitability and productivity validation in 2026 [10][13] Group 3 - The outlook for 2026 suggests a transition in asset pricing logic, moving from explaining the world to discounting future cash flows, emphasizing the importance of financial conditions and narrative realization [12][14] - The potential for a "power factory" model in AI investment is highlighted, where the focus shifts from merely acquiring GPUs to establishing sustainable computational infrastructure [13][14] - The anticipated economic environment in 2026 may lead to further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, impacting the yield curve and creating opportunities in mid to short-duration assets [14][15]